Liverpool are losing duels and losing matches - is there a link?
Arne Slot regularly discusses the importance of winning duels, but his team are struggling to consistently do so.
Long-time readers will know that Liverpool’s ability to win duels has been a hot topic on this Substack for some time now.
And that this run returned three defeats suggested this was a serious issue given Arne Slot’s side had suffered as many across the previous 39 games.
Liverpool subsequently ‘won the duels’ in just two of their final seven fixtures, posting three wins, two draws and two defeats across an unconvincing finish to a memorable season.
As such, it was posited here that one of the main aims for the approaching summer window might be to add more physicality to Slot’s squad.
However, the Reds went down an entirely different route in a surprising flurry of transfers, and they have since started the new season by losing not only plenty of duels but also plenty of matches.
Across the 18 games contested this season, Liverpool have won the duels in 10, lost them in seven, and finished honours even in the other.
And what is most concerning is that there appears to be at least a small correlation between winning duels and winning the match - with the scoreline and duels success ratio matching up in two thirds of the games.
Just for clarity, it is probably worth mentioning at this point that duels aren’t solely a defensive metric given they also include successful dribbles and fouls suffered.
And this quirk can lead to situations such as Liverpool winning more duels than Brentford in a woeful recent defeat in London, as well as losing more en route to convincingly beating Real Madrid.
But the basic premise is about winning your individual battles, and so it makes sense that there is some link to the outcome of the game itself.
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