Should Liverpool be worried by their dwindling duel success rate?

The Reds have 'won the duels' in just one of their last 10 games in all competitions, fuelling suggestions that fatigue has set in.

Photo: IMAGO | Anfield Index

Liverpool fans convinced that a late-season downturn in results owes everything to fatigue will not be surprised to learn about their recent record in duels.

For the uninitiated, duels are defined as one-on-one battles in which players are either competing for a loose ball on the ground or in the air, attempting to dribble past their opponent, or attempting to stop their opponent passing them.

Each of these incidents is assigned a winner and a loser, with that outcome then attributed to both team and individual in the match statistics.

And, as can be seen below, the Reds have fared remarkably poorly by this measure of late, winning more duels than the opposition in just one of their last 10 outings.

This run has also featured their worst two performances of the season in this regard, a 33% win ratio at Paris Saint-Germain, and just 36% during last weekend’s defeat to Fulham.

A drop-off from early in the campaign is evident, too, with Arne Slot’s men averaging a 50% success rate across the first 10 games compared to just 44% in the last 10.

On the surface, this appears to be conclusive proof that tired legs and tired minds are costing Liverpool during a key part of the season.

Yet it is important to mention at this juncture that the link between duel success and winning football matches appears to be fairly flimsy.

Liverpool have lost more duels than they have won in 32 of their 49 games this season (65%), and yet they have won 35 (71%), drawn seven, and lost seven of those fixtures.

And most interestingly of all, these recent issues may in fact be attributable to a simple quirk of the fixture list, rather than exhaustion on the players’ part.

Remarkably, Everton, Aston Villa, Manchester City, Newcastle, PSG and Southampton all claimed their second (and in the case of PSG and Everton, also their first) ‘duel win’ of the season over Liverpool during the last 10 games.

Meanwhile, Wolves had previously won an even split of 50/50 last time out, leaving Fulham as the only exception.

What links each of these opponents is that they boast physically imposing players all across the park, while many of them defended man-to-man in order to turn the game into a series of duels.

And clearly, Liverpool struggled to cope with this tactic, even when the result went in their favour.

While this hasn’t proven too costly over the course of the season, it does underline one area Slot can look to improve going into 2025-26, adding size and strength to his team in order to prevent them being bullied and ensuring games can be controlled more easily.

The obvious area in which to do this is central midfield, but the Reds also lack sufficient duel-winners up top and in both full-back roles.

Before the chance to address that arrives, the good news for Liverpool is that the coming fixture list looks far kinder in this aspect.

Liverpool won the majority of their duels against West Ham (54%), Tottenham (52%), Chelsea (53%), Brighton (58%) and Crystal Palace (62%) in their previous Premier League meetings this season.

You would also like to think that struggling Leicester (46%) should hold no fears, and that Arsenal (48%) will find life far tougher at Anfield.

But there is still plenty for Slot to ponder as he looks to secure the Premier League title and then add to that success in the coming years.

Liverpool may be winning the war this season, but they will surely hope to win more battles as well next time around.